1990 Intelligent Decision Aids
Published Papers and Technical Reports

Librarian: Cathy Wiley
phone: (202) 767-0018
email:library@aic.nrl.navy.mil.

INTELLIGENT DECISION AIDS

Lashon B. Booker,
"Using Classifier Systems to Implement Distributed Representations," International Conference on Neural Networks, IJCNN-90-WASH-DC, Vol. I, pp39-42, January 15-19, 1990,Washington, DC, Lawerence Erlbaum Associates, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-016). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
This paper shows how the distributed representation techniques used in neural networks and other connectionist systems have a natural counterpart in classifier systems. Eventually, this representational correspondence may have important practical implications for the parsimonious design of hybrid systems having both subsymbolic and symbolic capabilities.


Lashon B. Booker, Naveen Hota, and Connie L. Ramsey,
"BaRT: A Bayesian Reasoning Tool for Knowledge Based Systems," Book Chapter: Uncertainity in Artificial Intelligence 5', M. Henrion, R.D. Shacter, L.N. Kanal, and J.F. Lemmer (eds.), pp271-282, 1990, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.: North-Holland, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-017).
Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
As the technology for building knowledge based systems has matured, important lessons have been learned about the relationship between architecture of a system and the nature of the problems it is intended to solve. We are implementing a knowledge engineering tool called BaRT that is designed with these lessons in mind. BaRT is a Bayesian reasoning tool that makes belief networks and other probabilistic techniques available to knowledge engineers building classificatory problem solvers. BaRT has already been used to develop a decision aid for classifying ship images, and it is currently being used to manage uncertainty in systems concerned with analyzing intelligence reports. This paper discusses how state-of-the-art probabilistic methods fit naturally into a knowledge based approach to classificatory problem solving, and describes the current capabilities of BaRT.


S.A. Musman, L.W. Chang, and L.B. Booker,
"A Real Time Control Strategy for Bayesian Belief Networks with Application to Ship Classification Problem Solving," Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Tools for Artificial Intelligence (TAI '90), pp738-744, November 6-9, 1990, Herndon, VA, IEEE Society Press, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-018). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
Many classification problems must be performed in a timely or time constrained manner. For this reason, the generation of control schemes which are capable of responding in real-time are fundamental to many applications. For our problem, that is ship classification, tactical scenarios often dictate the response time required from a system. In this paper we discuss efficient ways to prioritize and gather evidence within belief networks. We also suggest ways in which we can structure our large problem into a series of small ones. This both re-defines much of our control strategy into the system structure and also localizes our run-time control issues into much smaller networks. The overall control strategy thus includes the combination of both of these methods. By combining them correctly we can reduce of the amount of dynamic computation required during run-time, and thus improve thee responsiveness of the system.


L.W. Chang, and R.L. Kashyap,
"Evidence Combination and Reasoning and Its Applications to Real-World Problem Solving," Proceedings of Sixth Conference on Uncertainity in Artificial Intelligence, pp370-377, July 27-29, 1990, Cambridge, MA, Sponsored by General Electric, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-019). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
In this paper a new mathematical procedure is presented for combining different pieces of evidence which are represented in the interval form to reflect our knowledge about the truth of a hypothesis. Evidences may be correlated to each other (dependent evidences) or conflicting in supports (conflicting evidences). First, assuming independent evidences, we propose a methodology to construct combination rules which obey a set of essential properties. The method is based on a geometric model. We compare results obtained from Dempster-Shafer's rule and the proposed combination rules with both conflicting and non-conflicting data and show that the values generated by proposed combining rules are in tune with our intuition in both cases. Secondly, in the case that evidences are known to be dependent, we consider extensions of the rules derived for handling conflicting evidence. The performance of proposed rules are shown by different examples. The results show that the proposed rules reasonably make decision under dependent evidences.


L.W. Chang, and R.L. Kashyap,
"Study of Interval-Valued Belief Combination with Conflicting Evidence," Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Tools for Artificial Intelligence (TAI '90), pp725-730, November 6-9, 1990, Herndon, VA, IEEE Society Press, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-020). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
In this paper we present a new mathematical procedure for combining conflicting evidence which are represented in the interval form. We propose a methodology to construct combination rules which obey a set of essential properties. he method is based on geometric model. We compare results obtained from Dempster's, intervals Bayes and the proposed combination rule with both conflicting and non-conflicting data and show that the values generated by proposed combining rule are in tune with our intuition.


Laura Davis and Jay Liebowitz,
"Testing and Evaluation of Expert System Prototype: A Case Study," Information Age, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp75-82, April 1990, Butterworth Publishers, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-021). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
Testing and evaluation of an expert system are critical parts of the expert system's life-cycle development. Often, the procedures and results of these processes are not well documented. This paper presents the preliminary testing and evaluation methods, observations, and results for an expert system called CESA. It is hoped that the study will help the knowledge engineer by serving as a documented example of testing and evaluation procedures.


Kenneth A. De Jong, Frank Pipitone and William M. Spears,
"FIS: An AI-Based Fault Isolation System," Proceedings Technologies Today and Tomorrow IEEE Southeastcon '90, Vol. 2, pp770-774, April 1-4, 1990, New Orleans, Louisiana, IEEE Society Press, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-022). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
FIS, short for Fault Isolation System, is an ongoing research project at the Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence, a branch of the US Naval Research Laboratory. The focus of the work is model-based expert system shell capable of acquiring from a user a description of a piece of electronic equipment called a unit under test (UUT). This description is later used by FIS to perform such diagnostic functions as recommending the next "best" test to make on the UUT during a fault isolation sequence and estimating fault probabilities after each test is made. These and other capabilities make FIS a powerful tool which can be used in a variety of diagnostic settings, as discussed in section 1.2. FIS has been developed primarily with large scale analog hybrid electronic systems such as radar and sonar systems in mind, but is applicable at least in principle to any human-engineered system with discrete replaceable components. FIS is written in LISP and has been under development for several years. Detailed descriptions of the FIS system can be found in 1.2.3.4. In this paper we provide an overview of the current system and describe some of its current application areas.


Henry Hamburger,
"Evaluation of L2 Systems Learners and Theory," CALL, Vol. 1, pp19-27, 1990, Intellect Publishing Co, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-023). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
Evaluation of CALL systems depends on the answers to a series of questions: What are our goals and priorities for language learning, and within them what is demanded of CALL? What other kinds of entities - video-tapes, human tutors, other software - do we implicitly or explicitly set up as standards of comparison for CALL? To what extent do we want the CALL system to fit with existing approaches and theories? Shall we evaluate a CALL system as a monolith or by module? I elaborate these questions with particular attention to intelligent tutoring systems, offer some partial answers, and show how systems, learners, and theories are all important objects of evaluation.


Henry Hamburger and Akhtar Lodgher,
"Semantically Constrained Exploration and Heuristic Guidance," Machine-Mediated Learning, Vol. 3, pp81-105, Taylor and Mentor Systems, Inc., (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-024). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
Exploration can be an effective learning experience, if suitably constrained and guided. Moreover, it can provide this benefit for specifically targeted formal skills in the arithmetic curriculum. This paper presents two complementary techniques for promoting success in computer-based exploration environments. Semantic constraints on exploration cut out meaningless options, and heuristic guidance facilitates search on the basis of a heuristic function with both cognitive and problem-solving components. We have implemented an environment that permits semantically constrained exploration for subtraction, as well as a related environment that facilitates the transition to paper-and-pencil subtraction. The authors tested the system in individual hour-long sessions with more than twenty children in grades 1-3.


Jay Liebowitz and Laura Davis,
"CESA: An Expert Systems Application in Contracting," Expert Systems Applications, Chapter 2, pp49-53, 1990, I.I.I.T. International, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-025). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
This paper describes the development of CESA, an expert system for aiding in Defense research contracting. Contracting is a ripe area for expert system application. Laypersons, such as scientists or new contract specialists, typically have difficulties in understanding, synthesizing, and applying relevant rules and regulations in the procurement request generation process. CESA is designed to act as an advisory system for aiding in the pre-award phase of the contractural process.


Jay Liebowitz, Laura Davis, and Wilson F. Harris,
"Using Expert Systems to Help the Contracting Officer Technical Representative: A Feasibility Study," Educational Technology, pp25-31, January 1990, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-026).
Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
Throughout U.S. Government agencies there are Contracting Officer Technical Representatives (COTRs) who are in charge of monitoring contracts and solving technical problems relating to these contracts. COTRs are a diverse community ranging from physicists and chemists to engineers and computer scientists. Automated support, and in particular expert systems, might be one approach to aid the COTR in better executing his/her duties and responsibilities. This article takes a look at using expert systems to help the COTR, and also a selection methodology to decide upom the best COTR problem domain for expert system development.


Connie Loggia Ramsey and Lashon B. Booker,
"A Parallel Implementation of a Belief Maintenance System," Proceedings of the Fifth Annual AI Systems in Government Conference, pp180-186, May 6-11, 1990,Washington, DC, IEEE Society Press, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-027). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
An algorithm to perform belief maintenance was implemented on the Butterfly Plus* Parallel Processor. This algorithm, which handles reasoning with uncertainty, is used in a system called BaRT which performs classification problem solving. The belief maintenance scheme uses a network to represent the problem domain, where each node in the network represents a hypothesis of the domain. The belief updating scheme is inherently parallel; incoming evidence can be attached to any number of different nodes in the network, and the impact of the evidence can be propagated through the network in parallel. Results show that a substantial improvement in the processing speed of belief updating can be realized, especially in cases where a great del of evidence is entered into the system at one time.


Randall Shumaker and Laura Davis,
Expert Systems at the Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence," Expert Systems With Applications, Vol. 1, pp71-77, 1990, Pergamon Press, (NCARAI Report: AIC-90-028). Not available on-line at this time. Please see order form.

Abstract
The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Washington DC, began operation in 1923 in response to a suggestion by Thomas Alva Edison that "The government should maintain a great research laboratory...In this could be developed...all the techniques of military and naval progression without any great expense." NRL initially contained two research division: radio and sound. It now consists of 15 research divisions encompassing a very wide range of technical specialities. One of NRL's newest research groups is the Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence (NCARAI), where significant effort is being made to transition artificial intelligence technology out of the laboratory and into service. Many of the research projects conducted by NCARAI are producing expert systems technology directed at broad problems within the Navy. Several of these systems are now mature and the efforts made in selecting problem domains, development, packaging, and distribution may provide useful insights for others.

1990 Publications by Section
Intelligent M4 Systems
Machine Learning
Neural Networks
Sensor-Based Systems
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Cathy Wiley, wiley@aic.nrl.navy.mil